The Australian property market is no longer a seasonal market.
Typically, spring is a season where we see an influx of property already on the market but that not the case this year! It’s now evident that we will not see the Super Saturdays that we would normally see happen towards late September.
But when the health orders are lifted, the restrictions on inspections are extinguished and sellers bring their properties to the market, the prediction is that there’ll be too much stock. There’s going to be a gluttony of listings, you’re going to see signboards everywhere and that’s when it’s going to be a buyers’ paradise.
The forecast is that this will happen during the months of Summer (November-December-January). This is based on the number of administered vaccines and the promise of easing of restrictions by the Chief Health Minister and the Premier.
Supported by the idea that Australia is making progress and with the prediction of a buyers’ paradise, I believe that when the restrictions are lifted, sellers will begin listing their properties and you’re going to have a lot of listings on the market.
Knowing that there was limited stock and supply in recent months, it’s evident that there’s a lot of sellers that haven’t come on to the market since the middle of the year. So in actual fact, there’s likely going to be three seasons worth of listing on the market at the one time! Winter, spring and summer listings!
This will be a great time for buyers but I’m concerned for seller because the absorption rate of property will likely head downwards meaning that buyers get to purchase at a cheaper price and sellers forgo premium sale prices.
For clarification, the absorption rate is defined as how many days would it take for all the stock on the market to get sucked in by the buyers!
So when there’s a lot of stock, the absorption rate actually becomes lower, because what actually happens is there’s just more stock to get absorbed.
Given that buyers numbers haven’t decreased much because of a lack of stock, I’m also not sure there’s going to be an increase of buyers to match the increase of supply. I believe, buyers will have more to choose from, properties will be on the market longer (the absorption rate being lower) and we all know that the longer a property is on the market – the more likely the price will fall.
I’m personally holding off buying until the summer months for this very reason but the question I have for sellers is, will you sell now or later when restrictions are lifted and you’ll have a lot more competition?
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